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Prediction for CME (2024-01-22T22:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-22T22:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28735/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It is fairly faint in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source appears to be an M3.4 flare from AR13561 peaking at 2024-01-22T21:21Z and/or an M1.6 flare from AR13561 peaking at 2024-01-22T21:43Z. There are opening field lines visible with this close to the flaring region as seen in SDO/AIA 193. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-26T13:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28765/1
Model Inputs:
2024-01-22T22:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=29.0, Lat.=-24.0, Speed=563.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-01-23T04:22Z
2024-01-23T04:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=26.0, Lat.=-30.0, Speed=613.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2024-01-23T09:50Z
2024-01-23T07:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=35.0, Lat.=-33.0, Speed=577.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2024-01-23T13:17Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-01-26T13:26Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =32.1 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-26T10:30Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-28T14:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-26T16:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 43.95 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-01-24T17:29Z

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